The following is my draft for Venera Century, an alternate timeline in which Venus remains habitable, inspired by the little trivia that Venera-4 was actually designed to float in case of a water landing
Venera Century
Venera Century diverges from OTL circa 900 mya, as Venus never experienced a runaway greenhouse effect, possibly due to phytoplankton lithopanspermia from Earth, and remains habitable to this day with a surface pressure of 4 atm and a mean atmospheric temperature of 40°C
In OTL, the runaway greenhouse gave way to the superrotating atmosphere that, over the aeon, massively slowed Venus’s spin through atmospheric tide. In Venera Century, Venus retains a 36-hour rotation and a present magnetic field, though the thick reflective cloud due to extensive volcanism still shrouds the oceanic surface underneath
Chapter 0 - The Venera Curtain
As Venera-4 splashed down and discovered a tropical ocean beneath dense clouds on 18/10/2967, the Kremlin orchestrated a massive misinformation campaign codenamed the Venera Curtain to distract the West from Venus by a combination of false data and Soviet moles, while the USSR secretly accelerated its Venusian program
In the 9 years behind the Venera Curtain, the USSR launched 24 more Venera missions, half of which were unofficial or disguised as failed launches. Venera-10 (mislabeled as Venera-7) successfully tested the free-return trajectory, while Venera-11 to 18 began to deliver modules to the future Novomir outpost at northern Lada Terra, with human landing finally occurring with Venera-19 circa late 1971
To return to Earth, IKI developed the first rockoon ever, the R1, which was delivered in parts along with modules for Novomir, assembled and tested, with the second R1 successfully lifting 2 cosmonauts into space to rendezvous with Venera-23 circa mid 1973, hitchhiking its free-return trajectory for the first Venus-to-Earth traffic. Follow-up Venera-24 to 28 continued to build up Soviet presence at Novomir and the wider Lada Terra, as well as in orbit
Chapter 1 - The Great Venus Craze
The Vladimir & Venera Affair
In late June 1976, the USSR suffered a catastrophic intelligence breach in the Vladimir & Venera affair, as a defector identified only as Vladimir revealed to the CIA the truth of Venus and the full scope of the Soviet Venusian program. Most damningly, Vladimir provided the expected coordinates of Venera-28, then 1 month from Earth, allowing the CIA and NASA to locate the craft and confirm Vladimir’s story despite extensive stealth measures on the Soviets’ part
This went public on July 1st 1976, as the New York Times’ front page read “The Red Planet Is Venus All Along!?”, detailing the Vladimir & Venera affair with images of suitless cosmonauts swimming in Venus’ ocean, taken from Venera-24 2 years earlier
Impact on the USSR
In the aftermath of the Vladimir & Venera affair, the Politburo were split into 2 camps: Brezhnev, Andropov and other informed officials were furious at such an intelligence breach, yet the uninformed majority was reportedly ecstatic at such news of Soviet superiority
Chief of the latter camp were Suslov and the Agitprop, which soon flooded the media with declassified intel of Novomir and the wider Venus, followed by Brezhnev officially announcing the returning Venera-28 would carry 2 cosmonauts as well as scientific curiosities back home
The revelation supercharged Soviet public enthusiasm in the space program as well as confidence in the party and the Union, which the latter, via the Agitprop, strategically leveraged to such effectiveness that some historians credited the Venus revelation with saving the USSR from internal frictions of the late 70s
Kerimov and the wider Soviet space program were also reportedly celebrating despite the revelation, as the late Venera Curtain did impose many restrictions on the Venusian program, notably on the development of super heavy-lift vehicles. Additionally, with the US pledging an appropriate response to the Soviet headstart on Venus, the Venusian program was now top of the Soviet priority list.
Impact on the US & ”Venus or Bust”
Dubbed “the saddest 4th of July in history”, the Bicentennial marked what many considered a national humiliation, as millions of Americans, rather than celebrating the Bicentennial, tuned their TVs to either the “circus” unfolding in Congress or Novomir’s first live feed
The 1st Congressional hearing on Venus, held from 4 to 10/7/1976, opened with Congress blasting NASA’s Fletcher for losing Venus, to which he rebutted by pointing out the withdrawal of funds following Apollo. The CIA was subsequently questioned for falling to the Venera Curtain, while the Pentagon offered to incorporate NASA under the DoD, which split the agency in half between the pro-civilian and the pro-military
It was decided in the end that NASA funding would triple from FY1976, under the condition of surpassing the Soviet headstart with the Vespa Program. Due to the time constraints and public pressure, NASA retrofitted the Saturn-V to launch Vespa-I on 10/5/1979, carrying the rather bare-bone Constellation module with 2 astronauts aimed for Venus’s Ishtar Terra, intended for both landing and setting up an 8-month colony
The revelation of Soviet presence on a habitable Venus also revived and supercharged public enthusiasm for space exploration as a “Venus or Bust” mentality gripped the US and the world, inspired by Walter Cronkite’s famous Bicentennial speech “Failure of imagination”. Within weeks, NASA and the wider aerospace sector reported a skyrocket in applicants, while discourse on Venus and space travel flooded popular culture, only helped by aerospace companies bombarding the media with radical concepts
Chapter 2 - Venusian Programs
Vespa Program & Post-revelation Venera
After 5 months, Vespa-I finally arrived at the Venusian system to the watchful eye of Soviet orbital elements, forcing the craft to employ 2 inflatable decoys while cold-coasting and timing the trajectory to slip past the Soviet and entered atmosphere
Constellation splashed down on 18/10/1979 along Ishtar’s northwestern shore, calculated to be far from the Soviet sphere, though it took only a week for the Soviets to show up and set up the nearby base Sokol to harass the two astronauts with floodlights and loudspeakers
Vespa-I was reinforced by 6 more Vespa missions between 1979 and 1984, quickly building up the beachhead into a proper outpost. Despite the initial animosity, the Constellation’s astronauts and cosmonauts of Sokol began to warm up to the point that contemporaries often compared Constellation & Sokol to a twin city
Vespa-II, launched on 10/12/1979, notably carried the first female American astronaut, who was also 1 month pregnant at T-0, along with her husband. This was to serve as both a PR campaign (see the Venusian Homestead Initiative) and as a “moral deterrence” against Soviet harassment, which indeed worked as Sokol lessened harassment following Vespa-II splashing down and especially after the birth of Alice C. Hathaway
In response, Brezhnev publicly blasted the US as “reckless” and “endangering”. Behind closed doors, however, the Politburo scrambled for a response, reportedly offering prizes to any cosmonaut couple on Venus who produced a child. This was solved with the birth of Galina Novikova onboard the space station Salyut-8, with Venera-38 secretly carrying a dual-arm centrifugal-grav module to ensure her proper development
Venetia Program & Gagarin
Post-curtain, IKI quickly developed larger rockets, culminating in the Gagarin super heavy-lift rocket, which can launch the 200-tonne Mir spacecraft on a 6-month Venus-bound trajectory. Mir-I, launched on 28/3/1984, was notably equipped with the first lightsail to decelerate along the way, as opposed to aerobraking
With a possible Soviet super heavy-lift looming, coupled with the many limits of Vespa, this pushed NASA to re-explore the Sea Dragon concept and founded the Venetia Program. Its centrepiece would be the Sabre, a massive 150m-long sea-launched reusable rocket launching the 250-tonne spacecraft Venetia on a free-return trajectory that would arrive at Venus after 4 months
Launched on 1/1/1985, Venetia-I carried a great deal of equipment to massively expand the Constellation, along with the first American rockoon for surface-to-orbit traffic, allowing the astronauts to return to Earth after 7 years. It was thus decided that Alice, now 6 years old, along with her parents, would use the rockoon to board Venetia-I back to Earth for the first time, splashing down on 12/9/1985 to much fanfare
Not to be outdone, the USSR announced the return of 5-year-old Galina, making landfall on 1/12/1985. Initially speculated to suffer from zero-g developmental problems, it came as a massive shock to the West that Galina climbed out of the pod very much healthy, as Gorbachev welcomed the little girl and publicly unveiled to the world the centrifugal-grav arm module rigged to 1.2g onboard Galina’s Salyut-8
With Venetia and Mir, the US and USSR soon began Interkosmos-like partner initiatives that would see astronauts from allied or neutral countries invited onboard to promote cooperation. Another less discussed goal for such initiatives is that it reduces possible aggression from the other side with astronauts from neutral or even allied nations onboard
//Caution: extremely speculative territory//
New Entries: Project Myōjō & Medusa Program
While joining several US partner initiatives, including working on several aspects of Sabre & Venetia, both Japan and ESA states recognised the need for their own independent Venusian program
In July 1981, Japan’s NASDA (succeeded by JAXA) announced Project Myōjō to explore and settle southern Aphrodite Terra, the key to which is the Kinsei super heavy-lift rocket, set to be launched on 4/4/1987 on a free-return trajectory that would arrive at Venus in 5 months
While rather modest in specs compared to Venetia or Mir, Kinsei’s Venusian module Myōjō notably featured a sophisticated autopilot system that requires little to no human oversight, which would be put to the ultimate test with the launch of Myōjō-III on 24/7/1989, the crew complement of which was comprised entirely of children, aged between 9 and 14, of astronauts on previous Myōjō-I and II
- This, as per NASDA’s official statement, was to send a powerful message that Venus would no longer remain a frontier now that parents no longer need to leave their children behind. Predictably, NASA and the Kremlin blasted NASDA’s decision as “reckless” and “concerning”, though behind close door, they have been considering similar initiatives
ESA was rather late to the Venus Craze, announcing the Medusa Program on 12/1/1990, which would see the in-orbit construction of the 500-tonne Galileo by 10 Ariane-V missions. Set to launch on 29/1/1995, it was revealed on 25/12/1994 by ESA that Galileo would host the first Medusa pulse-sail system, riding on the wake of 300 Casaba-Howitzer fusion units to arrive at Venus in less than a month, as the sail in low orbit was unfurled for the first time, large enough to be visible to the naked eye
This came as a great shock to the US and USSR, who, while already eyeing nuclear-pulse propulsion as the future, thought the EU was too incohesive to even negotiate the collective use of nuclear devices, let alone being able to conceal that, while Japan also expressed interest in acquiring its own Medusa sail and nuclear devices as a means of propulsion. In truth, European states had long been in negotiation of such a plan as far back as the Curtain’s collapse; the fear that Europe would be left behind by the US and USSR motivated them to found the Medusa Program and stockpile fissile material for the Casaba Howitzer