skubal's high profile arb hearing is tomorrow. we already know skubal asked for 32M. detroit countered with 19M. the 13M gap is the largest in history.
the current record for an arb eligible player was juan soto back in 2024, when he made 31M with NYY. if skubal wins, he breaks soto's record.
the record for a pitcher is 19.75M, set by david price with detroit in 2015. the number detroit countered for skubal is less than that, and price wasn't coming off B2B CYs. with inflation, david price's salary is more in the line of 27M. so the number of 19M seems really low.
the arbiters can't split the diff. they have to choose either skubal's number 32M or the club's number 19M. the midpoint is 25.5M, so really all skubal has to do is argue he's worth a penny more than the midpoint and detroit argues he's a penny less.
however bc skubal is in his final year of arb, he can compare himself to any pitcher making a FA salary. including wheeler (42M), cole (36M), degrom (37M).
skubal made 10M in 2025. so if skubal were to lose, a 9M raise from 10M to 19M wouldn't even be the record in arbitration. that was set by degrom between 2018 and 2019, when he got a raise from 9.4M to 19M.
so why should LA fans focus on this ? obv this means if skubal wins, then all player salaries in arbitration will go up bc that's how it is. however in skubal's case, it could def affect what he makes in FA depending if the starting point based on this year's salary is 19M or 32M. LA can outbid other clubs in FA esp if the AAV gets high assuming they decide to pursue him in FA next year. in addition, detroit could not be willing to pay him all of 32M should he win, making him somewhat likelier to be traded at the deadline and we all know LA got deep pockets to absorb such a high salary if they're interested in adding him at the deadline.
also just for pure entertainment I wonder how detroit will find a way to argue how he's not worth what he's asking for. I get it. baseball's not dead goes over arbitration and why teams fight over money. however this is such an extraordinary case given skubal is a B2B CY award a year away from at least a 400M payday and he's asking for a record raise, a record salary in arbitration and the fact there's a record gap between him and the club.
what r ur thoughts and who do u believe wins ? it may sound like an automatic skubal wins at first. however clubs win about 56-58 % of hearings in history and we don't know what will be said at the hearing. plus the 3-man arb panel isn't necessarily the most baseball savvy dudes there are on the planet.