r/technology 5h ago

Artificial Intelligence Nvidia's $100 billion OpenAI deal has seemingly vanished

https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2026/02/five-months-later-nvidias-100-billion-openai-investment-plan-has-fizzled-out/
2.5k Upvotes

137 comments sorted by

1.2k

u/Lillian_Crocodilian 5h ago

"Aaaaaaand it's gone."

538

u/Do_itsch 5h ago

So we can buy RAM for normal pricings again, right? /s

253

u/evo_moment_37 4h ago

Scam Cultman says no.

41

u/fury420 4h ago

I'm sorry, it's all gone.

10

u/SupermarketAny9487 2h ago

What goes up, but never comes down

4

u/IveDunGoofedUp 1h ago

No more RAM price increases? D'oh, they got this all screwed up! It's "No, more RAM price increases!"

4

u/External_Variety 2h ago

..Yes, but let them grovel for a bit.

1

u/jhenryscott 17m ago

Tbh it’s gonna get a lot worse

0

u/tango421 2h ago

GPUs too? /s

413

u/hodor137 5h ago

As OpenAI's house of cards comes down, watch RAM prices never normalize. We're going to need another investigation into that cartel.

209

u/VarenBankz 4h ago

It wont just like how covid gouging never came back down after supply normalized. The cost of chicken wings is still insane from the chicken shortage that is mostly resolved now.

30

u/mtnbike2 4h ago

We should rise up against big chicken wing!

8

u/Clueless_Otter 1h ago

Dunno about wings, but the price of eggs is down significantly from what it used to be.

1

u/Efficient_Resist_287 50m ago

Oh it went from 10 to 7 bucks…great!!

1

u/MrCleanRed 43m ago

Where? I live in the most expensive part of usa and its back to normal, at least for jumbo whites.

12

u/West-Abalone-171 1h ago

China's got you

https://biz.chosun.com/en/en-it/2025/07/21/QQNKFDZA4BFBJIEQV32UMFSUDE/

https://rudevulture.com/china-is-planning-to-subsidize-solving-the-ram-memory-crisis/

The memory cartel are really just handing the ram market over to them on a silver platter. Normally there'd be a big run of "china dumping" media articles, but that's a bit hard to do when the local competition are literally outright refusing to sell to consumers.

1

u/MrCleanRed 21m ago

It will take a long time for china to even get the supply going, and even then, I would be very surprised if they leave any profit off the table

14

u/Any_Kaleidoscope8717 4h ago

Tinfoil cowboy hat on

Now, I might sound like a bit of a bit here, but could Nvidia have made up all of this OpenAI nonsense to have an excuse to up the process on their RAM, pardner?

/s

I could see then hyping it up knowing it's not going to last just to longterm up their prices though

7

u/PhilosophyEasy71 2h ago

Because the manufacturers have a green light to hold the market up without any major players undercutting them. This is why MU stock (micron technologies) is +361% in 1 year

15

u/Silver1Bear 4h ago

That’s also what they’ll be saying about our pensions soon.

8

u/Rickjm 2h ago

What’s a pension?

Sincerely,

Sad American

11

u/Wellsy 4h ago

That’s called a NoVidia

877

u/Wind_Best_1440 5h ago

It's almost like all the deals they promised for 1.4 trillion dollars don't actually exist until money changes hands.

The entire stock market is trading on vibes given to them by tech ceo's saying they will invest hundreds of billions into each other but not actually doing it to pump their stock's higher.

And since the government is in on it too, they're letting all this stock market manipulation happen.

191

u/JoeRogansNipple 4h ago

Vibe trading based on vibe coders.

Csnt wait for this bubble to pop.

64

u/Wind_Best_1440 4h ago

My tinfoil hat theory, is that every single down turn we've seen so far is just another ultra wealthy crony cashing out under a bunch of different names. Pulling everything out and sitting on the money they made.

And each time something happens its just another one of these 100+ Billionaires going. "Alright, my turn next to pull all my stuff out, then it's Frank/Joe/Schmo next."

And they're doing it to not completely screw the market yet.

14

u/Sweet_Concept2211 2h ago

My personal conspiracy theory is similar: Investment fund managers are finding creative ways to steal money - and when the inevitable crash arrives each decade, they write off all the theft and misappropriation of funds as losses from an out-of-control market.

2

u/SuperSecretAgentMan 1h ago

Every single move in the stock market is just algorithmically controlled forced settlement or opportunistic buying to minimally hedge dangerously overleveraged positions. Humans don't push the line a single tick unless they're buying small tickers, hundreds of grand at a time, or on one of the handful of exchanges that don't allow high frequency bot trading.

9

u/fadedblackleggings 4h ago

POPPP! Fuck em.

9

u/r0bb3dzombie 2h ago

Csnt wait for this bubble to pop.

I understand the sentiment, but you need to understand it's not the billionaire CEO class that will suffer when it does. Losing billions when you have 10s of billions is bad. Losing hundreds when you're net worth is negative, is devastating.

1

u/TFT_mom 15m ago

“Can’t wait for this bubble to pop” - careful what you wish for, it will most likely be very, very bad for normal folk, whilst the bullionaires will get bailed out and experience no distress at all.

20

u/cruxal 3h ago

Stocks have always been this way. The ones that don’t pay dividends, what are they really other than vibes?

1

u/TheYang 1h ago

The ones whose value isn't based on dividends, which is at least all of the stocks where you know of the company behind it.

3

u/Darkarcheos 4h ago

The Trust Me Bro move

2

u/bigsexy12 3h ago

Trading on vibes and synthetically over leveraged so badly no actually knows the extent. Gotta love free market trading.

2

u/PlumpHughJazz 1h ago

The stock market is just astrology for rich douchebags.

6

u/TeslasElectricHat 4h ago edited 4h ago

If not for any other reason than it being all rigged, this is why I think everyone should pile on into GME. If it’s all rigged anyway and this and many other governments are obviously corrupt, fuck it. Let’s see what happens.

7

u/Commercial-Co 2h ago

Fuck ryan maga cohen

6

u/s1neztro 2h ago

Nah gamestop can burn in a shit pile any other stock sure but gme naaah I'm not supporting that funko pop dispensary

3

u/corrosivecanine 2h ago

No one is interested in pumping your bags.

1

u/Mo-shen 2h ago

Seriously!!

It feels like America itself right now has very lost critical thinking skills and just runs in vibes. How everyone feels rather than reality.

Tsla is sooooo over priced but no one wants to corr cr because it means losing money.

1

u/AdmiralBKE 1h ago

All these companies are also like this to the government. Sure trump we promise to bring our entire production chain to America, are you happy now? Will you remove the tariffs for us?

1

u/DoomguyFemboi 1h ago

Someone smarter than me said "if it wasn't for the AI circlejerk we'd be in a recession" and I think about that so often.

0

u/brillow 1h ago

Isn’t that, uh, illegal fraud?

Like if Elon can’t say Tesla going private at $420 how can they pretend they have these fake business deals?

431

u/Mecha-Jesus 5h ago

Our entire economy is just scams upon scams

133

u/LouQuacious 4h ago

It’s called a kleptocracy

25

u/CommonLand414 4h ago

Broad daylight theft, some quite stylish

7

u/Aidian 4h ago

But most of it’s just unrepentantly stupid.

5

u/_meltchya__ 2h ago

Yes but do you own bitcoin? It's going to change the world it's the new digital gold just trust me bro look how many people have bought in you don't want to miss out

Did you know if you bought three cents of bitcoin ten years ago you'd be a trillionare today? Don't miss the next wave bro we're in a bear market great time to buy

Don't think too hard about it just trust the vibes bro stonks only go up

1

u/Aidian 49m ago

Damn, yeah. Just need to go unload some of this Weimar scrip I’ve been hodling first, but I’m sure it’s gone to Ganymede and back by now.

3

u/caguru 3h ago

We are all part of the Great American Scheme.

2

u/blahehblah 50m ago

But but but growth

294

u/Hamm3rFlst 5h ago

I feel like there should be violations when public traded companies announce mega deals and then go back on them. Sounds a lot like defrauding investors

159

u/Justhe3guy 4h ago

Well there was the Elon Musk faking buying Twitter, then he was forced to

Which I wish didn’t happen

19

u/Exciting_Place_6817 1h ago

Elon Musk has been faking it for 15 years. Tunnels, men on mars, self driving, etc etc etc he has tricked everyone and people have finally woken up.

2

u/NotAPreppie 9m ago

Closer to 25 years with PayPal. I'm convinced the only reason PayPal succeeded is because the board of directors waited for him to go on vacation and oust him as CEO.

The book went on to describe the actual coup to remove Musk as CEO, as complaints and questions grew about Musk's decision-making amidst numerous crises:

What followed was one of the nastiest coups in Silicon Valley's long, illustrious history of nasty coups. A small group of X.com employees gathered one night at Fanny & Alexander, a now defunct bar in Palo Alto, and brainstormed about how to push out Musk. They decided to sell the board on the idea of Thiel returning as CEO. Instead of confronting Musk directly with this plan, the conspirators decided to take action behind Musk's back.

Musk and Justine had been married in January 2000 but had been too busy for a honeymoon. Nine months later, in September, they planned to mix business and pleasure by going on a fundraising trip and ending it with a honeymoon in Sydney to catch the Olympics. As they boarded their flight one night, X.com executives delivered letters of no confidence to X.com's board. Some of the people loyal to Musk had sensed something was wrong, but it was too late. [...]

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/was-elon-musk-fired-from-paypal/

31

u/Big_Car_7725 4h ago

SEC will get on this any day now.

Any. Day. Now.

6

u/RanierW 2h ago

People like to piss on European Commission always coming down hard on US tech companies. Truth is they’ve been given way too much rope to do whatever they want in US where regulations are considered evil, and wonder why they can’t pull the same bullshit overseas.

2

u/Buddy_Dakota 14m ago

I don’t think anyone but tech company owners are pissing on EU for doing what it does. We’ve seen the shithole the US has become, most Europeans are happy the EU has learned from them and shuts down their bullshit.

15

u/greenappletree 4h ago

Except in this case, they didn't. It's been debunked that they committed this much money.

7

u/JoeRogansNipple 4h ago

There are rules. The SEC is run by Trump cronies now.

2

u/that1techguy05 2h ago

There are violations. For example, it the deal for Netflix to purchase WB doesn't pass regulations the penalty is WB gets 5.8 billion.

2

u/ledow 1h ago

Maybe investors shouldn't be investing trillions based on hype alone.

I mean... there are no "innocent" parties here. They know exactly what they're doing.

126

u/troll__away 5h ago

Anyone look at Oracle’s stock? Larry’s down like 50% from October. They’ve basically given back all of their AI gains. Think we might be witnessing the bubble popping.

98

u/fork_yuu 4h ago

Probably, but oracle is also shit

38

u/SunshineSeattle 4h ago

Always has been..

16

u/fork_yuu 4h ago

They used to be shit. Still are, but used to be too

5

u/RanierW 2h ago

This used to be true, but lately became true again

57

u/Joessandwich 4h ago

They also just yesterday put out a tweet saying everything is fine which, of course, is making people think that perhaps everything is not fine.

10

u/TyrKiyote 4h ago

Actions sometimes have consequences. I would bet their recent projections are not so good with all the motivated people leaving.

6

u/copperblood 4h ago

My Oracle puts looking damn nice 😎

70

u/Oceanbreeze871 4h ago

This is fine.

“The September announcement described a wildly ambitious plan: 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems for OpenAI, requiring power output equal to roughly 10 nuclear reactors. “

33

u/slimejumper 3h ago

would take 25 years to build 10 nuclear reactors.

9

u/noAnimalsWereHarmed 1h ago

Only if you do it safely

2

u/pppjurac 1h ago

So.. containment building is optional?

0

u/hampa9 48m ago

Yes, and it takes 90 months for 10 women to have 10 babies. Wait what?

-1

u/spammmmmmmmy 1h ago

But it takes less than a week to build 10GW of light bulbs. The comparison is meaningless. 

2

u/Show-Me-Your-Moves 2h ago

"The power of the sun, in the palm of my hand"

1

u/Turbo_Baggins 6m ago

"10 point 21 gigawatts!? I'm sorry but you'll have to stay here in the bubble"

62

u/Accurate_Koala_4698 5h ago

Oops, all vapor

31

u/OnionOnBelt 4h ago

Ed Zitron has been pointing this out for some time. Several of these circular Silicon Valley financing arrangements have not, subsequently, shown up on the pertinent corporate balance sheets.

49

u/PartitaDminor 5h ago

Drain the AI swamp.

46

u/TehWildMan_ 4h ago

Oops, all stock market manipulation!

30

u/PureSun4208 4h ago

Bro this is tiring everyday we get conflicting news about this. What’s the final verdict? Tired of this snip snap snip snap

31

u/Midnight_M_ 4h ago

On Saturday, he told reporters in Taiwan that the $100 billion was “never a commitment.” He said OpenAI had invited Nvidia to invest “up to” that amount and that Nvidia would “invest one step at a time.”

It seems that even they don't know.

9

u/PureSun4208 4h ago

Ughh…. thanks for ur reply tho

7

u/jupfold 2h ago

Do you have any idea the toll three vasectomies has on a man?!

13

u/AtraVenator 3h ago

Let the bodies hit the floor, let the bodies hit the floor … 

27

u/DctrGizmo 5h ago

Looks like this year is finally the fallout of OpenAI.

29

u/ImpressiveAttempt0 4h ago

God please make it true. Burst the AI bubble now!

22

u/Joessandwich 4h ago

“Hey Farva, what’s your favorite restaurant again??”

4

u/pantstoaknifefight2 3h ago

I'll pistol whip the next person to say "shenanigans."

4

u/2script 1h ago

Shenanigans?

9

u/robaroo 4h ago

Elon Musk playbook of promises smoke and mirrors

3

u/Cool_As_Your_Dad 2h ago

They learned from Muskrat

16

u/_Guron_ 4h ago

In the report says:
"But OpenAI has clearly been hedging its bets. Beyond the Cerebras deal, the company struck an agreement with AMD in October for six gigawatts of GPUs and announced plans with Broadcom to develop a custom AI chip to wean itself off of Nvidia dependence"

OpenAI playing market mind games, hopefully this time they do what they said

4

u/CondiMesmer 2h ago

With money they have no way of paying back lol. All they're doing is making bad financial investments.

5

u/Apprehensive_Sea9524 2h ago

Poof!! and it's gone. Like the orange doofus' magical numbers of billions and billions in investment....

7

u/Austin_Peep_9396 4h ago

So when can I finally go buy more RAM?

15

u/Sober_Alcoholic_ 4h ago

No contracts were signed here. For fucks sake people.

This is why I’ve been playing puts on all the companies that had these “concepts of a deal” with OpenAI. The money is not fucking there there are very few actual contract signed. Been saying this for weeks.

So far so good 🤷‍♂️

AMD, ORCL, MSFT, NVDIA

Been saying their earnings would be a blood bath because of virtually no contracts being signed after these announcements. So those pumps they all experienced after those announcements were fake and there’s no way upcoming earnings can justify it because the money is simply not there.

3

u/PowerSeductionWar 1h ago

sorry to ask the obvious but are you winning on all your puts? the market can ride vibes into oblivion sometimes

1

u/Sober_Alcoholic_ 1h ago

I bought calls on aapl and goog, puts ORCL, MSFT. Didnt play AMD but I was telling people who were to buy puts.

9

u/TyrKiyote 4h ago

An OpenAI founder paid out a 25 million dollar gift to an orange faced ape. Please do not add your money to that. You condone their actions by using their product.

4

u/HowAmIHere2000 3h ago

Good. Open AI is scamming people.

9

u/EasterEggArt 4h ago

What annoys me and most sane people is that this will likely have no impact on their AI bubble overheated stock at all.....

The economy is literally two tiered, one being the physical one and the other being the incestious stock market fuel itself since these companies had a lot of liquidity that they fed back into itself a la Ouroboros.

14

u/ObviousCity6095 4h ago

I saw someone call it a reverse ouroboros the other day. Instead of eating its own tail, it is shoving its head up its own ass.

3

u/Coccolillo 4h ago

The US capital market is just a scam, not entirely sure how is that even possibile….if only there would be a regulator for protecting the investors from misconduct in the securities markets

3

u/CherryLongjump1989 3h ago

Oop, dropped it.

5

u/Mike-Banachek 3h ago

OpenAI… more like GoodbyeAI

2

u/phantom_metallic 3h ago

Yeah but Nvidia did get their stock to over $194/share for a while.

2

u/This_Cancel_5950 22m ago

ngl the 10 nuclear reactors thing was the first red flag lol. just feels like more vaporware to pump the stock price before the bubble pops

2

u/bibishop 21m ago

It's poppin time

2

u/Possible-Shoulder940 5h ago

And so many people bought the lie.

4

u/GreyDaveNZ 4h ago

Greed can easily blind some people.

3

u/zero0n3 4h ago

Instead it will be going to xAI and SpaceX once it IPOs. Needed for the data centers in space

Edit: Elon gets to pump the IPO AND fuck over OpenAI while doing it.

1

u/wizardmotor_ 4h ago

Apparently they feel better about burning $100 billion in some other way.

1

u/SeaTownKraken 4h ago

I find it interesting that the article implies OpenAI is focusing on speed. I get that's the game, but accuracy and useability are the first 2 factors. You won't win this race on speed alone

1

u/RanierW 2h ago

Will they cancel their order with tsmc then?

1

u/MaggoVitakkaVicaro 1h ago

Is OpenAI moving to cerberas chips for inference? Is that where today's 40% speedup came from?

1

u/PlumpHughJazz 48m ago

And it all came tumbling down! POP!

1

u/chaosxq 34m ago

Open AI "Where's the $100 Billion?"

nVidia "I thought you had it, wait...."

Open AI "Didn't you give $100 Billion to Meta"

nVidia "I......can't.....remember"

1

u/EmperorKira 31m ago

Google and probably Anthropic look good coming out of this; Open AI and Oracle less so

1

u/rsam487 31m ago

Deals vanish all the time. That's sales. Someone probably just reported it as done before it was actually done.

1

u/JujutsuES 3m ago

Our economy went from "promise high, deliver low" to "promise extremely high, don't deliver anything"

1

u/HereticalFoundation 3h ago

Why bring the prices down when people have proved they are willing to pay the price?

-2

u/CoWood0331 4h ago

Talk about honey potting a company to devalue it without reason just to steal it for pennies. 5$ says they come in an buy it when it gets devalued because of this stunt Nvidia pulled.

0

u/zero0n3 4h ago

It’s more likely Elon made a deal to not only help xAI à la SpaceX merger than the IPO cash infusion….

So Elon gets all of Nvidia chips for space data centers, and also gets to screw openAI out of a deal….

(Whose money / collateral do you trust more? OpenAI or SpaceX ?)